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Article

Research on the Warsaw real estate market under conditions of post-pandemic recovery and migration processes

Olena Shandrivska Sofiia Bohaychyk Diana Skrypchenko
Abstract

The transformation of the Warsaw real estate market under the influence of global macroeconomic instability, pandemic-related restrictions, and large-scale migration waves necessitates a scientific analysis of structural changes and adaptive mechanisms within the housing sector. The aim of the study was to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Warsaw real estate market conditions during 2021-2025, to assess the level of its market concentration, and to identify the determinants of demand transformation in the context of post-crisis recovery. The methodological framework of the study was based on a systems approach, incorporating statistical analysis of time series data, comparative methods, SWOT analysis, and mathematical tools for assessing market concentration, including the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the Linda Index, and the Gini coefficient. The results indicated that price dynamics in both the primary and secondary housing markets in Warsaw over the period 2021-2025 demonstrated an upward trend, with peak growth recorded in 2024, driven by inflationary pressures and supply shortages. It has been established that the spatial distribution of housing prices across the districts of the capital reflects a high level of differentiation, with central locations maintaining their status as the most stable investment assets. A significant shift in the structure of demand has been identified, marked by an increase in the share of foreign buyers, particularly Ukrainian citizens, whose contribution to market indicators has become strategically important since 2022. Based on calculations of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for 2021-2024, a trend towards market deconcentration has been substantiated, alongside a transition from a moderate to a low level of market power among dominant players. It is projected that further stabilisation of the sector will occur through the intensification of suburbanisation processes and the adaptation of supply to new socio-demographic needs of migrants. The practical significance of the study lies in the potential application of its findings by investment analysts to minimise risks, as well as by public authorities in the formulation of strategies for the spatial development of urban agglomerations in the post-crisis period

Keywords

housing prices; developers; market concentration; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index; Linda Index; Gini coefficient

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Received 23.09.2025, Revised 21.01.2026, Accepted 24.02.2026 Published 21.05.2026

Retrieved from Vol. 13, No. 1, 2026

Suggested citation

Shandrivska, O., Bohaychyk, S., & Skrypchenko, D. (2026). Research on the Warsaw real estate market under conditions of post-pandemic recovery and migration processes. Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management, 13(1), 20-32. https://doi.org/10.56318/eem2026.01.020

https://doi.org/10.56318/eem2026.01.020

Pages 20-32

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